Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-03T00:17:55

High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) are currently high to very high, peaking at over 61000pfu. Whilst some temporary reduction in flux values can be expected from any geomagnetic activity, these high to very high levels are expected to persist with only a gradual decline in peak values. This is supported by persistence where high values on the last rotation persisted for a number days, with only brief and transient reductions

The associated electron fluence is currently Very Active and expected to remain at this level through day 1, and likely day 2. Confidence decreases by day 3, although Active electron fluence is expected throughout. This is supported by the REFM model, which maintains very Active levels, although overestimating values.