MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-04T00:09:24
Electron flux is forecast to remain at normal background levels until day 2 (5th). However the arrival of the HSS from coronal hole 48 is expected to bring a marked increase in flux, as seen the previous rotation. Once geomagnetic activity subsides, flux is expected to rise, peaking at high levels (over 1000 particles cm-2 sr-1 s-1) either by the end of day 2, or during day 3 (6th).
The associated fluence is also expected to rise quickly thereafter, likely rising above the Active threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1 ) during day 3, with a slight chance of reaching Very Active levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-04T00:09:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 10% |