MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-03T00:04:54
Electron flux and fluence is forecast to remain at normal background levels today until 05 Aug. After the HSS from CH48/+ becomes established an increase in flux is expected; this was seen quite markedly on the previous rotation and a similar effect is likely this time round. By 06 Aug flux is expected to peak at high levels diurnally (over 1000 particles cm-2 sr-1 s-1) with the 24 hour integrated fluence likely to exceed the active threshold on the same day.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-03T00:04:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |