Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-04T00:21:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at background levels during day 1 (4 July), and has steadfastly remained at background levels since 17 June. An expected response is likely from day 2 (5 July) with diurnal peaks perhaps reaching Moderate levels by day 3 ( 6 July) but probably not reaching the High threshold by day 4 (7 July).

The corresponding  24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout this four-day forecast period. albeit with a slightly increasing trend likely from days 2&3 (5&6 July) onwards. This trend gives a 10% chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) by day 4 (7 July).