Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-11T00:01:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will fluctuate between moderate and high levels on day 1 (11th), before returning to normal background. As a result of this, electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during day 1 (11th), before coming back down at the end of day 2 (12th).

The REFM does unfortunately not offer good guidance; on the previous rotation, the solar winds increased much later and were much slower, leading to the electron fluence remaining below the Active threshold throughout.