Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-10T00:12:32

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start the period at background levels, but with high speed stream established at Earth, electron counts would be expected to increase through the period, outside of any more significant geomagnetic activity at first on day 1 (10th). Although winds will slowly decrease to background levels through the forecast period, electron flux is likely to reach moderate levels on day 1, and moderate to high levels from day 2 (11th).

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence will start at normal background levels, but with an increasing chance of rising above the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) by the end of day 3 (12th). Latest REFM data suggests a rising trend, but likely too low due to a weaker high speed stream last rotation, and expected higher electron counts this time around.