MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-10T00:00:12
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue mainly below the Active level, with low chance of rising above the threshold at the diurnal maxima. The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. This is supported by the REFM model, which shows a slight rise in the next few days, but still below the Active threshold. The 27-day recurrence shows a declining trend, but the current fluence is already well below where it was on the last rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-10T00:00:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |