MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-17T00:00:32
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to begin the forecast period at well below Active levels, but is expected to show a rising trend later in the period if the high speed stream arrives. However, the likelihood is that the fluence will remain below the Active threshold throughout. The REFM 27-day recurrence and the 3-day forecast both suggest that fluence levels will remain below the Active threshold in this forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-17T00:00:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |