MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-24T00:04:21
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to be at mainly background to moderate levels today (24th) and tomorrow (25th), but with a gradually rising trend during days 3 and 4 (26th and 27th) as the weak high speed stream becomes fully established, perhaps reaching high levels (greater than 1000pfu) at peaks of the diurnal cycle.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold today and tomorrow, but with a rising trend during days 3 and 4 in response to increased flux, though will most likely remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-24T00:04:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |