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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-23T00:02:38

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at background levels and is likely to range between background and moderate levels through most of the next few days. There is the chance that high levels may be reached following the onset of the HSS from coronal hole 32 during days 3 and 4. The corresponding 24-hour fluence values are also  forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period, but with a rising trend likely later in the period. However, this is not currently expected to reach Active thresholds by day 4.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-06-23T00:02:38
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%