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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-23T00:12:10

The high energy (great than 2MeV) electron flux in the Van Allen belts has fallen to background in the last 24 hours. Furthermore, any forthcoming coronal hole enhancements at Earth are unlikely to include sufficient electron populations to significantly charge the belts. With no mechanism for further enhancement currently forecast, it follows that these background levels are expected to be maintained through the period, with only brief diurnal rises to moderate possible. The associated 24 hour electron fluence will therefore remain below the Active threshold, inline with REFM. 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-07-23T00:12:10
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%