MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-22T00:28:45
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to oscillate diurnally between moderate and high levels, but with a slowly declining peak through the forecast period. This pattern will be subject to slight enhancements due to the onset of the coronal hole high speed stream.
Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are likely to remain below the Active threshold throughout based on current electron flux forecasts. There is however a slight chance that the fluence could increase above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold due to enhancements in the solar wind.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-22T00:28:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |