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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-22T00:28:45

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to oscillate diurnally between moderate and high levels, but with a slowly declining peak through the forecast period.  This pattern will be subject to slight enhancements due to the onset of the coronal hole high speed stream. 

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are likely to remain below the  Active threshold throughout based on current electron flux forecasts.  There is however a slight chance that the fluence could increase above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold due to enhancements in the solar wind.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-07-22T00:28:45
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 20% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%