Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-21T00:12:35

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate diurnally  between background and moderate levels for much of the forecast period. There is a small chance of electron counts increasing due any slight enhancements to the solar wind that occur, however persistence from the previous rotation suggests that this is unlikely, and any enhancement is likely to be limited.

The corresponding high energy electron fluence therefore expected to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) over the next four days, as suggested by REFM. Whilst there is the potential for a slight rising trend in values due to any transient enhancements to the solar wind that occur, these are not expected to be sufficient to raise fluence levels above the active threshold.