Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-15T00:25:34

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is varying between moderate and high levels through 24-hour cycles.  A move towards sustained high levels is forecast from later on day 1, as the Earth connects to the high speed stream from coronal hole 40. These levels are then likely to continue due to the continuing high speed stream.

Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are currently trending downwards, but a steady rise is likely from day 2 onwards due to the effects of the increasing high energy flux values. Any fall below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is expected to be brief before the influence of the high speed stream takes effect.