Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-14T00:08:47

The high energy electron flux has mostly been at high levels (over 1e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1) since 10/1200 UTC, with only brief diurnal reductions to moderate levels. 24-hour integrated fluence rose above the Active threshold soon after this and has similarly remained at moderate levels.

Following the recent high speed stream influence, a slow reduction in both flux and integrated fluence is expected over the next 2 days. However, increased geomagnetic activity on days 2 and 3 (15th/16th) may lead to a more rapid decrease. Electron flux and thus fluence is then likely to increase again towards the end of the period due to the high speed stream from CH40/-, however there is currently a significant degree of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of this.