MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-14T00:10:53
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is initially forecast to be at Normal or Moderate levels, increasing to generally Moderate from Day 2 (Saturday 15th), with a chance this may rise further to High levels at times.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. However, a general trend towards increasing fluence is likely to be seen as a result of elevated solar wind speeds.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-14T00:10:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |