MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-13T00:05:36
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at Normal background with possible diurnal peaks to Moderate from Day 2 (14 June) onwards. During the previous rotation, around 16 May, the high energy electron flux changed very little over the preceding 3 or 4 days and this pattern is most likely to be repeated during this current forecast period.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-06-13T00:05:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |