Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-13T00:02:01

The high energy electron flux has mostly been at high levels (over 1e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1) since 10/1200 UTC, with only brief diurnal reductions to moderate levels. 24-hour integrated fluence rose above the Active threshold soon after this and has similarly remained at moderate levels.

With waning high speed stream effects initially, a slow reduction in both flux and integrated fluence is expected. High energy electron flux is forecast to drop to moderate levels by 14 Jul, perhaps falling further to normal background, albeit for a short time – an increase looks set from 15 Jul onwards as the next high speed stream starts to affect the near-Earth environment, giving sustained high levels combined with brief diurnal reductions, similar to what has been seen in recent days.

24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold for much of the coming four day period, any reduction in the first 48 hours quickly offset as input from the next high speed stream arrives.