Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-20T00:05:57

The past ten days have seen the high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) exhibit a clear diurnal variation between high and moderate levels. This will likely continue into this forecast period, albeit with a slow declining trend.

Over the last 24 hours the electron fluence peaked at 9.99e7 integrated pfu, as high as it can go without quite reaching the active threshold of 1e8 integrated pfu. A similar pattern is likely today (20 Jul), with fluence likely to be close to the active threshold and perhaps rising slightly above, before decreasing from 21 Jul onwards.