Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-19T00:20:52

The high energy electron flux(>2MeV) is expected to diurnally fluctuate between background and moderate levels for much of the  forecast period, perhaps reaching the high threshold during the diurnal peak on day 3 and 4 (21st and 22nd August) if any influences are seen from coronal hole 54.

The corresponding high energy electron fluence is now comfortably below the Active (1e8) threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 4 days, although a rising trend is possible late on day 2 (20 August), as was observed during the previous rotation around 24 July. On days 3 and 4 this rising trend may continue if influences from coronal hole 54 are seen, though values are most likely to stay just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels.