Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-12T00:24:41

The high energy electron flux has been at a high level since 06 Aug. A slow decline in peak daytime fluxes started on 10 Aug and this is expected to continue over the coming days. However, whilst diurnal minima will be more likely to drop to moderate levels (below 1e3 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 s^-1), the daily peaks are still likely to reach high levels.

Electron fluence will also exhibit a decline and is expected to drop below the active threshold (1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) by the end of day 2 or on day 3 (13-14th Aug).