Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-19T00:16:18

Over the last few days the high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux that as measured by GOES14, has diurnally fluctuated between moderate and high values. In the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity this pattern is expected to continue but with a gradual declining trend from late tomorrow (20th).

The corresponding fluence is likely to rise just above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during today (19th), and at first tomorrow, before decreasing below the Active threshold by the end of the forecast period. The Met Office REFM model is slightly underestimating the current fluence levels, but overall the guidance of a decreasing fluence trend through the forecast period is accepted.