MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-12T00:08:24
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start at high levels, then decrease to moderate levels with the diurnal cycle today and tomorrow (12th and 13th), before returning to normal to moderate levels by the end of the period. As a result of this, electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) today and tomorrow (12th and 13th), and possibly day 3 (14th) before falling below the Active threshold by day 4 (15th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-12T00:08:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 20% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |