MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-05T00:07:17
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, but a steady rise is forecast once the high speed stream becomes established. The flux may temporarily reach high levels at the peak of the diurnal cycles by days 3 and 4 (7th and 8th).
Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the period, with a slowly increasing trend from late on day 2 onwards.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-05T00:07:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |