MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-18T00:12:57
Over the last few days the high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux that as measured by GOES14, has diurnally fluctuated between moderate and high values. In the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity this pattern is expected to continue but with a gradual declining trend. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore also likely to follow a declining trend, as supported by REFM. Electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold and thus expected to remain so through the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-18T00:12:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |