MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-25T00:07:01
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) in the Van Allen belts is currently at normal background levels. The flux is likely to exhibit a gradual day on day increase under weak coronal hole influences and may reach moderate levels diurnally later in the forecast period, most likely from day 3 (27 Jul) onwards. Similarly, the 24 hour electron fluence is expected to show an upward trend, but is expected to remain below the active threshold throughout (as per REFM).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-25T00:07:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |