MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-01T00:03:43
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels but, as the high speed stream is now established, a steady rise should soon follow. The flux is expected to be able to reach temporarily high levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle by day 2 (02nd Aug) and this pattern is most likely to be repeated the following days.
The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) initially, yet with a slow increasing trend and an increasing chance of exceeding the threshold later in the forecast.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-01T00:03:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 20% |