MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-02T00:10:49
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels but, as the high speed stream is now established, a gradual rise is expected. The flux may temporarily reach high levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle from tomorrow (3rd Aug), although any enhancement in geomagnetic activity at the end of the period, due to the arrival of the HSS from CH48, is likely to squash the high energy electron flux back down to ambient levels again.
The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) today and tomorrow, and may increase to reach the Active threshold later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-02T00:10:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |