MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-03T00:31:02
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at low background levels with no sources of enhanced electron counts expected to influence Earth's Vaan-Allen belts during much of the forecast period (certainly until day 3 with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from CH36).
The associated 24 hour fluence is therefore highly likely to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a slight rising trend during days 3&4 (5&6th July).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-03T00:31:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |