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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-03T00:31:02

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at low background levels with no sources of enhanced electron counts expected to influence Earth's Vaan-Allen belts during much of the forecast period (certainly until day 3 with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from CH36).

The associated 24 hour fluence is therefore highly likely to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a slight rising trend during days 3&4 (5&6th July).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-07-03T00:31:02
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%