Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-01T00:22:01

Electron flux levels rapidly rose thorugh the second half of the 31 Aug and are currently above the high threshold. The previous rotation saw flux levels rise to over 20000pfu, and similar values can be anticipated on this occasion, albeit with the potential for occasional reductions from any further geomagnetic activity on day 1. 

The associated electron fluence will also rise, above the Active threshold on day 1, and then likely becoming Very Active by day 2. This is similar to the current expectations from REFM, and would follow a similar pattern to that observed from persistence.  However there is some uncertainty later in the period, due to the more eastward extended northern lobe of the coronal hole on this occasion, perhaps suggesting a chance of solar winds staying elevated for longer this rotation, which in turn will increase the length that the high energy electron fluence may stay active or very active.