help
Home HOME
 
month‹‹‹ week‹‹ day‹ ›››month ››week ›day
 

MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-08T00:22:51

The high energy electron flux is currently High. Solar conditions are similar to the previous rotation, with slightly elevated winds expected. It is therefore expected that electron counts will follow a pattern much like that seen on the previous rotation, with a continuation of High diurnal electron flux through the forecast period.

The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to remain above the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, with a chance of exceeding the Very Active threshold (greater than 1e9 integrated pfu).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-09-08T00:22:51
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 30%
Day 2 90% 30%
Day 3 80% 20%
Day 4 80% 20%