MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-09-08T00:22:51
The high energy electron flux is currently High. Solar conditions are similar to the previous rotation, with slightly elevated winds expected. It is therefore expected that electron counts will follow a pattern much like that seen on the previous rotation, with a continuation of High diurnal electron flux through the forecast period.
The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to remain above the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, with a chance of exceeding the Very Active threshold (greater than 1e9 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-09-08T00:22:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 30% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 30% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 20% |