MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-31T00:01:45
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels but is expected to increase to moderate to high levels from day 1 (31st Jul), due to the anticipated high speed stream from coronal hole 45. The corresponding 24 hour electron fluence is therefore forecast to rapidly increase later in the period and is likely to exceed the Active threshold on days 3 & 4 (2nd and 03rd Aug).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-31T00:01:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 30% |