Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-07T00:18:50

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux values measured by GOES14 at GEO have rapidly risen in the last 24 hours, once the high speed stream of coronal hole 48 had become established. These high values are expected to mostly persist during the next 4 days, although some diurnal variation or any geomagnetic enhancements are likely to see more moderate values at times. Furthermore peak values are likely to gradually decline, mainly from day 3 onward. 

With high electron flux values, the associated 24 hour fluence levels have also climbed, to become Active since 06/1500UTC. With no further significant features in the forecast period, these active levels are now expected to persist throughout. There is also a good chance of reaching very active levels, mainly later on day 1 or day 2.