Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-06T00:17:17

The high energy (>2MeV) electron flux is currently near background levels and the ongoing high speed stream from coronal hole 48 is expected to bring a marked increase in flux, as seen during the previous rotation. Once geomagnetic activity subsides, the electron flux is expected to rise, most notably during day 1. It is then likely to diurnally fluctuate between moderate and high levels (over 1000 pfu)  through the remainder of the period.

The associated fluence is also expected to rise quickly thereafter, rising above the Active threshold (1e8 particles particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1  ) during either day 1 or 2 (6 or 7 Aug), with a slight chance of reaching Very Active levels (1e9 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 ).