MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-17T00:13:30
The electron fluence is currently declining, with readings of just around 1.5e8 integrated 24 hour pfu. The anticipated continuation of a slow decline in peak flux levels over the next 4 days means that a slow downward trend in fluence is also likely to develop. In fact, the fluence looks like it may fall below the active threshold of 1.0e8 during day 3 or 4 (19th or 20th August).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-08-17T00:13:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |