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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-08-10T00:13:51

The high energy electron flux has been high in the last 24 hours, although peak values have fallen in comparison to the previous day. This trend of falling peak values is expected to continue, with increasingly prolonged periods of moderate values expected to develop. Flux levels could also fall for a time on day 3 in response to any geomagnetic activity that occurs. The associated electron fluence has fallen from Very Active levels to Active over the past 24 hours. This declining trend is likely to continue, although the fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold until at least day 3.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-08-10T00:13:51
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 95% 1%
Day 3 70% 1%
Day 4 50% 1%