Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-17T00:22:06

In the absence of other forcing mechanisms, the high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux that is measured by GOES15, has maintained its diurnal pattern, peaking at high values at around 1800-2100UTC, before declining to moderate levels at minimum, around 0600UTC. Whilst a gradual decline in peak values is now expected, some day to day variations are possible due to any slight geomagnetic activity, alongside solar wind speed and density fluctuations. This has led to a brief rise in peak values on the 15th, however despite this, the general downward trend remains.

This brief rise in peak flux has led to the associated electron fluence rising slightly, but remaining just below the Active threshold. These values should continue to gradually decline as supported by REFM, however there is a chance of rising above the Active threshold briefly on day 1.