Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-16T00:03:40

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES15, has diurnally fluctuated between moderate (101 pfu to 1000 pfu) and high levels (greater than 1000 pfu), with a peak of 4110 pfu at 15/1910UTC. However, a gradual downward trend has been observed over the past few days, and is expected to continue into the forecast period, with diurnal peak values declining further through the period.

The 24 hour integrated fluence levels are similarly expected to gradually decline, and this should lead to the Active fluence levels at the time of writing (1.07e8 integrated pfu at 15/2100 UTC), to fall below the Active threshold early on day 1 (16th). Fluence levels are then expected to stay below the Active threshold for the rest of the forecast period.