MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-07-09T00:08:09
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels and is expected to remain below the high threshold (1000pfu). A slow but gradual rising trend is forecast, with a likely increasing chance of reaching moderate levels on diurnal peaks through the period.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period, but with a similar slow upward trend likely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-07-09T00:08:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |