Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-06-16T00:13:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at background levels for several days, though has come close to moderate levels at peaks of the diurnal cycle. The flux is expected to begin the forecast period at background to moderate levels, but is expected to show a rising trend from tomorrow (17th) onward, with an increasing risk of reaching high levels (above 1000pfu).

The 24-hour fluence is currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and expected to show an increasing trend in response to the rising flux, approaching or perhaps just exceeding the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during the second half of the forecast period.