Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-17T00:00:38

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be variable through the period with possible rises above the Active threshold during the peak of the diurnal cycles. There is a low chance that the fluence will rise above the Active threshold. Without evidence of strong CME arrivals there is now less likelihood that the magnetopause will suffer compression, which suggests a fairly orderly diurnal pattern will persist over the next few days. However, with the flux only briefly rising above the 1000 pfu Active threshold level over the past two days there is now lower confidence that the fluence will rise above the 1e8 integrated pfu level. The REFM recurrence model strongly indicates below Active levels, although that doesn't give good guidance with a different scenario prevailing on that rotation. The REFM forecast also suggests that below Active levels are more likely than not. The percentages given here therefore now indicate that above Active levels are possible as opposed to probable.