Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-05-16T00:02:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be variable through the period as several CMEs are anticipated to closely encounter the Earth's system. Recent and expected high speed streams are likely to re-energise the Van Allen belts, but with CME arrivals temporarily forcing compression of the magnetopause, thus leading to intermediate falls in the flux levels. In terms of timing specific high flux levels there is generally low confidence. The REFM recurrence offers little forecast guidance with a markedly different scenario on this rotation, although the forecast mode does suggest the fluence will rise to near or above the Active threshold following recent high speed streams. The flux levels peaked briefly above the 1000 pfu threshold for a time today, which raises probabilities to near even.