Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-16T00:23:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to reach High levels during its diurnal peak on day 1. However, the chance of this occurring over the following days is less likely as electron flux is expected to return to Moderate or Background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence has now fallen below the Active level (1e8 pfu) and is likely to continue to fall over the course of days 1-3. On day 4 there is a chance of fluence increasing again, if connection is made to the high speed stream from coronal hole 05. Both the forecast REFM model and the 27-day recurrence suggest below Active levels are most likely.