MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-17T00:10:46
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at background to moderate levels in the past 24 hours. Flux levels are expected to remain at background to moderate levels, perhaps briefly reaching high levels (above 1000pfu) at peaks of the diurnal cycle.
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is now below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and showed a falling trend. Fluence is expected to level off and remain below the Active threshold during the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-17T00:10:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |