Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-10T00:10:25

The GOES15 high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to remain high initially, with a chance of coming back to moderate on day 2 and 3 (11th & 12th) due to weak influences from coronal hole high speed streams. However, this would only be temporary and the electron flux would be expected to rebuild soon, with diurnal peaks reaching high levels. A similar pattern occurred on the 08th of April in connection with coronal hole 98.  

The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold on day 1 and 2 (10th & 11th) but possibly fall below on day 3 and 4 (12th & 13th), due to suppressed electron fluxes. Late in the forecast period the fluence is likely to reach Active levels again, depending on the magnitude of the influence of coronal hole 01. The REFM (Relativisitc Electron Fluence Model) is unfortunately not very trustworthy as it keeps the values below or close to the Active threshold when it is already above and rising.