MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-03T00:04:30
The high energy electron flux and fluence (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the period with insufficient energy in the solar wind to drive it higher. The REFM model is indicating below-Active levels, and although the 27-day recurrence was above the Active level on the last rotation, from an earlier high speed stream, this has not been realised on this occasion. The forecast model is considered to offer better guidance at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-03T00:04:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |