Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-04T00:06:46

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been high over the past 24 hours, reaching 45500pfu at its peak and rising the fluence levels above the very active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu). With solar winds now weakening, both electrons and fluence should gradually decline and, although this is supported by the REFM output, fluence levels from the previous rotation remained above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much longer than the REFM is suggesting. On the other hand, connection to other coronal holes may knock the electron flux and reduce the fluence level much quicker than anticipated. These factors tend to greatly diminish our level of confidence.

In summary, flux and fluence levels are expected to subside only slowly through the forecast period, with active fluence expected to be maintained for much of the period, though with a great level of uncertainty on day 4 (7th).