Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-03T00:04:31

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has above the high threshold (1000pfu) throughout the past 24 hours, and peaked just above the very high threshold (50,000pfu) for approximately 2 hours. The flux is expected to stay mainly above the high threshold (1000pfu) throughout the forecast period, perhaps reaching the very high threshold (50,000pfu) again at peaks of the diurnal cycle. Flux levels may conversely briefly drop to background or moderate levels in any enhanced geomagnetic activity during today (3rd) and tomorrow (4th), though should soon recover to high levels. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence began the previous 24-hour period well above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and showed a slight rise throughout, exceeding the Very Active threshold (1e9) at 02/1800UTC.  

During the equivalent time period on the previous rotation, the high energy electron fluence was well above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period, but did not exceed the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu), and dropped just below the Active threshold by day 4. On this rotation however absolute values of fluence are higher than at the equivalent time on the previous rotation, so fluence levels are expected to stay well above the Active threshold throughout the forecast period even if a declining trend is observed later in the period, and is expected to be around or just above the Very Active threshold also for much of the forecast period, especially during the first half.