Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-02T00:19:21

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux values are expected through most of the forecast period, these only coming back below the Active threshold during the minimum of the diurnal cycle. The corresponding fluence is therefore expected to exceed Moderate (1e8) for most the rest of the period, as coronal hole influence lingers, perhaps dropping below late on day 4 (5th).

This forecast is based on the previous rotation, where the fluence stayed above the Moderate threshold for 3 days. However, as coronal hole 79 is more elongated west-east for this rotation, the high speed wind and so supply of high energy electrons may persist a little longer than the previously, the REFM is struggling to capture this, but does forecast the fluence breaching the High (5e8) threshold at times during day 1 (2nd), which is considered to be good guidance. However, in reality the fluence is likely to remain above the Moderate threshold longer than the REFM model indicates.