Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-01T00:30:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) may rise close to the Active threshold (1000pfu) during the peak of the diurnal cycle at times in the forecast period, but is more likely to remain below, with solar wind parameters not conducive for a stronger rise. Therefore the corresponding 24-hour fluence will also most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Met Office REFM output is currently predicting below-Active levels to persist, and this looks to be giving sensible guidance at present

The 27-day recurrence has a declining trend following above Active levels, but this level of activity has not been realised on this occasion with weaker solar wind parameters forecast.